Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kokkinakis and Carreno Busta are scheduled to meet in the first or second round of Roland Garros in late May 2026. The Australian currently ranks outside the top 100, whilst the Spanish veteran—a former US Open finalist and consistent clay-court performer—typically sits in the 15–25 range. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical listing issue or genuine uncertainty about whether this draw will materialise at all.

Historical precedent matters here. Kokkinakis has won roughly 35% of his ATP matches against top-50 opponents over the past three seasons, though his record on clay improves marginally. Carreno Busta's clay-court win rate against lower-ranked players hovers near 70%, and he has reached multiple Grand Slam quarter-finals. When the seeding gap widens this substantially—and on a surface favouring baseline consistency—the higher-ranked player typically advances in 65–75% of cases. The crowd's extreme confidence in Carreno Busta's advance, reflected in the 0% YES reading, aligns with historical clay-court dynamics rather than suggesting an upset.

Traders monitoring this match programmatically should flag fixture confirmation by late April, as Roland Garros draw sheets typically release six weeks prior. Track both players' injury status and ATP ranking movements through May; any withdrawal or ranking collapse would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution. The settlement window closes 7 June, providing a three-day buffer beyond the scheduled date. Conditional order logic should account for potential rain delays on the Roland Garros clay courts, which frequently push matches beyond their original slots.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.