San Marino: Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak

Platform comparison

Market context

Alexandre Muller plays Mili Poljicak in the San Marino Challenger quarter-finals on red clay, with Muller the higher-ranked player at ATP No. 132 and Poljicak at No. 352.[1][7] The market’s 0% YES price is stark against the pre-match framing from tennis data sites, which put Muller as a clear favourite rather than a toss-up.[5][7][10] For a power-user running this through bots or conditional orders, the key input is not the headline probability but whether the fixture is actually live, since the market only resolves on a completed advance, a no-contest, or a delay outside the seven-day window.

Comparable cases in this event support a rank-and-surface model more than a recent-form punt. Muller reached the quarters after beating Marco Cecchinato in three sets, while Poljicak upset Nikoloz Basilashvili from qualifying, so both arrive with credible clay-court wins on the board.[14] That makes the match useful for programmatic sizing: if your tooling is copying market moves, compare any late drift against the ranking gap, challenger-level context, and whether either player has already logged a long three-setter that could affect stamina.

The practical catalysts are scheduling and tournament integrity rather than off-court noise. Live listings show the match as scheduled for 31 July at around 14:00–15:00 UTC on Court 3, but multiple feed times differ slightly, so automated traders should verify the official draw and scoreboard before assuming the event has started.[1][8][13] If the match is postponed, suspended, or abandoned, the settlement rule can shift away from a binary outcome, which matters for copy-trading rules and any bot logic that closes positions when the start time slips beyond the window.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.