Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Stefano Travaglia and Luka Mikrut are due to meet in Wimbledon qualifying on grass, with the market resolving on who advances rather than on set score or match length. For a programmatic setup, this is a straight winner-selection event: the key inputs are the official match status, whether play starts, and whether a winner is recorded before the seven-day settlement cutoff.[2][3][10]

The current 100% YES price is consistent with the market being effectively fully bid to the scheduled outcome, but it should still be read against the underlying tennis context rather than as certainty. Pre-match previews had Travaglia as the narrower favourite, with one pricing model listing him around 1.49 versus 2.52 for Mikrut, while head-to-head databases suggest Mikrut has had the better record in prior meetings.[1][5][9] That combination usually produces a market that stays near the favourite only if the match is expected to be played on time and without administrative risk.

The main catalysts are operational: Wimbledon scheduling, any court-time shifts, and whether the match is completed after starting. Live and sportsbook listings placed the fixture on 22 June with differing start-time estimates, which is typical for qualifying where order-of-play can move quickly.[2][4][6] A bot monitoring this kind of market would normally watch the official result feed, then apply the settlement rule hierarchy: finished match = named winner, not played or delayed beyond the window = 50-50, and an unfinished match only resolves if one player is officially awarded the advance.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.