Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Yue Yuan

Platform comparison

Market context

Elizara Yaneva against Yue Yuan is a Warsaw WTA 125 round-of-16 match, scheduled for 5 August 2026, with the market currently pricing a 100% chance of the match outcome being settled. Public match listings and prediction venues still show Yue Yuan as the stronger side, with implied win probabilities around the high-50s to mid-70s depending on the source, so a 100% YES price is only consistent if the market is effectively treating the contest as already live, completed, or near-certain to resolve cleanly rather than as a fresh pre-match view.[2][6][12]

For traders running this through bots or conditional orders, the useful read is that tennis markets on lower-tier tours can move sharply on start-time changes, retirements, or walkovers. Historical price framing here is simple: when a listed favourite remains intact and the fixture is on the schedule, the market usually tracks the stronger-ranked player, but once a match is delayed, suspended, or not started, settlement can pivot to the event rules rather than the tennis odds. That makes it important to separate *who is favoured* from *whether the market will resolve on a completed result*.[2][4][12]

The main catalysts to watch are the official start signal, any court or order-of-play revision, and live confirmation that the match has begun and finished without retirement or abandonment. A programmatic setup should poll the event feed and competitor listings for status changes, because the contract terms allow 50-50 settlement if the match is cancelled, tied, or pushed beyond seven days without a winner, while any retirement-induced advance after the match starts should still count as an advance for resolution purposes. That means the trading trigger is not just the pre-match odds, but the match state transition itself.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Yue Yuan across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.