Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before July 31, 2026, is the real-world event this market tracks, with the crowd currently assigning only a 1% chance of it happening. Historically, presidential removal has been exceptionally rare: Richard Nixon resigned before impeachment, while Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump himself were impeached but acquitted by the Senate in every case [2][3]. Trump stands as the first president convicted of felony crimes after leaving office, yet his prior impeachments in 2019 and 2021 resulted in no removal [1][9]. The 25th Amendment allows temporary transfer of power during incapacity, but the market explicitly excludes such temporary invocations, requiring permanent cessation of office [7]. This historical precedent frames the 1% probability as grounded in the constitutional difficulty of achieving removal, not merely the existence of legal charges.

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor specific catalysts: any formal announcement of resignation, a Senate vote on impeachment, or a Supreme Court ruling that strips Trump of immunity for official acts. Recent reporting indicates Trump and allies are discussing plans to expunge his impeachments from history, a political move that could signal resistance to removal efforts [5]. Traders must also watch the sentencing date for Trump’s New York business records conviction, scheduled for November 26, 2024, though its direct impact on removal remains uncertain [1]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-31, so conditional orders should be tied to news feeds announcing resignation or removal, as the market resolves immediately upon such an announcement regardless of when the change takes effect. The 1% price reflects the high threshold for permanent removal under current constitutional and political conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.