Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The core event is whether a sitting U.S. president will execute a bilateral written agreement with Iran by the end of July 2026. The agreement need not be signed by state representatives directly—it qualifies if the listed individual signs in official capacity on behalf of either nation. This framing is material: it captures executive orders, memoranda of understanding, or protocols that bypass traditional diplomatic signing ceremonies, which matters for conditional order logic and settlement edge cases.

Historical precedent suggests the 18% probability reflects genuine structural friction. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was never formally signed by the U.S. president as a treaty; it was an executive agreement, which allowed the Trump administration to withdraw unilaterally in 2018. Any new accord would face similar constitutional constraints and domestic opposition. The Obama-era negotiations took two years of intensive talks before execution. Conversely, Trump's 2020 Abraham Accords were signed rapidly once frameworks existed, indicating that when political will aligns, agreements can move quickly.

Traders should monitor three dependency chains: first, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election and cabinet appointments by Q1 2025, which determines negotiating posture; second, Iran's domestic political calendar and sanctions pressure, which affect Tehran's willingness to engage; third, any public statements from State Department or Iranian officials signalling renewed talks. Reuters and Bloomberg regularly report on sanctions policy shifts and back-channel diplomatic activity. For algorithmic traders, this market exhibits low-frequency catalysts—expect volatility around election transitions and quarterly sanctions reviews rather than daily news flow. Conditional orders keyed to "U.S. administration change" or "Iran nuclear programme announcement" would be more efficient than continuous monitoring.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.