Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

2026 is currently projected to be one of the hottest years in the instrumental record, with the crowd assigning a 32% chance it ranks as the single hottest year globally. This probability sits below the 51% likelihood of a fourth-place ranking estimated by Berkeley Earth, which attributes the cooler outlook to ongoing La Niña conditions pushing 2026 temperatures closer to 2025’s third-warmest status [3]. Conversely, James Hansen’s physics-based model argues 2026 will likely exceed 2024’s record by 0.06°C, suggesting the market’s 32% YES price may undervalue the potential for a top-tier rank if ocean cooling patterns reverse [1].

Programmatic traders should monitor the monthly Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index releases from NOAA, as the settlement depends entirely on this specific dataset’s final annual average. The immediate catalyst is the June 2026 report, which already recorded the globe’s second-warmest June, driven by sea surface temperatures reaching an all-time high for the month [2]. Traders building conditional orders must watch for the transition from La Niña to neutral or El Niño phases, as the World Meteorological Organization notes an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record [4]. Automated bots should weight the divergence between Hansen’s warm forecast and Berkeley Earth’s cooler 4th-place consensus to adjust position sizing before the December settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.