Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that day’s highest reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s historical daily data for the EHAM station, capturing the exact thermal peak before the 12:00 UTC deadline on 16 July 2026.

Historical mid-July readings at Schiphol typically cluster between 22°C and 28°C, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the lowest tiers statistically anomalous. Recent market data shows the frontrunner is 25°C at 54%, followed by 26°C at 23%, suggesting traders expect a standard summer day rather than extreme cold or heat [1]. This divergence from the 0% baseline indicates the market has already priced in a moderate high, framing the current probability as a reflection of consensus rather than a lack of data.

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) for hourly updates, as sudden cloud cover or wind shifts can alter the peak within hours. The primary catalyst is the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff, which creates a hard dependency on the final Wunderground entry; any delay in data ingestion could trigger latency arbitrage for bots executing conditional orders. Traders must also watch for KNMI’s daily weather bulletins, which often forecast temperature ranges 24 hours ahead, providing the necessary signal for automated entry strategies before the window closes.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.