Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s official high for 31 July is usually mid-20s Celsius rather than extreme heat, so a market resolved on the day’s highest temperature at Schiphol is effectively a late-summer warmth check, not a heatwave bet. Historical July averages for Amsterdam sit around 22°C highs, with typical daily highs on 31 July close to 24°C and a long-run July climate norm around 22°C, which means the distribution usually clusters far below the upper resolution bands unless there is a pronounced warm spell[1][8][13].

For framing the current 0% crowd-implied YES price, the useful comparison is not the average day but the tail of the historical record. Amsterdam has seen much higher July extremes, including 36.4°C in July 2019 and 35.8°C on 1 July 2025, showing that the venue can occasionally print well above 35°C when continental heat builds into the Netherlands[12][14]. Programmatically, traders would usually treat this as a nowcast-plus-threshold problem: monitor the daily maximum forecast, compare it with the market’s temperature bands, and update only when observed or forecast highs move materially inside the settlement-relevant range.

The main catalysts are therefore the same variables that drive a short-horizon weather model: cloud cover, wind direction, rainfall, and any synoptic hot-air intrusion from the south or south-east. Today’s published forecast for Amsterdam points to a warm but not exceptional day, around 26°C with drizzle risk and breezy south-westerlies, which is consistent with a lower-end outcome rather than a break-out move into hotter bands[3]. For a bot or conditional-order workflow, the key dependency is the final Schiphol history entry on the Wunderground daily page, since the market resolves on the highest recorded temperature there rather than city-centre observations[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.