Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ankara’s late-July heat is usually driven by clear skies, dry continental air and strong daytime heating, so the practical question for this market is whether the Esenboğa station prints a routine hot-day high or a more extreme spike. Long-run July climatology for Ankara points to average daily highs around **31°C**, with sunshine dominant on most days and rain uncommon, which means the distribution is already skewed towards upper-20s to low-30s readings rather than cool outcomes.[2]

That helps explain why a **0% YES** crowd price can still be consistent with a live weather market if the trading community is anchored to an implausible range, a stale contract interpretation, or an early misread of the settlement bands. For programmatic traders, the key inputs are not city averages alone but the station-level intraday maximum, updated from the Wunderground history page for Esenboğa Intl Airport, and the model should compare forecast highs against the market’s discrete temperature buckets rather than a single point estimate.[2]

For catalysts, watch the day’s synoptic setup: a strong ridge over central Anatolia, clear overnight lows, and any dust, cloud, or convective build-up that could cap afternoon heating. Because this contract resolves on the highest recorded temperature at a specific airport station, the decisive check is the final Wunderground history entry for that date rather than a general Ankara forecast, and traders using bots or conditional orders typically want to re-price into the early afternoon local time when the daily maximum is most likely to be set.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.