Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on 20 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for ZBAA. Today, the crowd assigns zero probability to any outcome other than the frontrunner, 30°C, which currently holds 100% implied probability, effectively pricing out all other ranges including 22°C or below [1].

Historically, mid-July in Beijing sees frequent highs between 28°C and 35°C, making 30°C a statistically central outcome rather than an outlier. The current 0% probability for lower ranges aligns with past July 20 readings, where temperatures below 25°C are rare and typically linked to unusual monsoon disruptions or cold fronts not forecast for this period. Programmatic traders should treat the 30°C line as the baseline and model deviations only if real-time station data diverges sharply from the long-term mean.

Traders must monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s 24-hour forecast updates and Wunderground’s live ZBAA feed as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, precipitation, or wind speed could alter the peak, though no such anomalies are currently flagged in recent weather bulletins. Automated bots should poll Wunderground hourly and trigger conditional orders if the observed high moves more than 2°C from the 30°C anchor before settlement [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.