Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. June sits within Beijing's early summer period, when daily highs typically range from 28°C to 32°C, though extremes can exceed 35°C during heat waves. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical archive for that specific station, making the resolution deterministic once the date passes.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than climatic impossibility—these temperature-range markets often show skewed distributions until closer to the event window. Historical June data from Beijing shows that temperatures above 35°C occur in roughly 15–20% of years, whilst readings below 25°C are uncommon but possible during cooler spells. Comparable markets on similar weather events demonstrate that crowd pricing tends to compress towards the modal range (29–33°C band) as the settlement date approaches, with tail probabilities repricing sharply in the final week.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is Weather Underground's data availability and any station maintenance or sensor recalibration during early June 2026. Monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts from mid-May onwards provides leading indicators; their 10-day outlooks typically converge on actual conditions within 3–5 days of the event. Conditional order logic should account for the discrete nature of temperature ranges—setting triggers on adjacent bands rather than single-degree thresholds reduces execution slippage when the market reprices following official forecasts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.