Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. Early June in Beijing typically sits within 25–32°C, though heat waves pushing above 35°C occur roughly once per decade during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise against baseline climatology.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show a median high near 28–30°C, with extremes ranging from 20°C in cooler years to 38°C during anomalous heat events. The 2010 heat wave and 2022 summer surge provide reference points for how far above seasonal norms conditions can deviate. Traders building conditional orders or automated monitoring systems should anchor initial positions to the 28–32°C band, then adjust as May 2026 weather patterns emerge and official meteorological forecasts narrow the range.

Catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration's monthly outlooks (typically issued mid-May), which flag whether El Niño or La Niña conditions favour above or below-average temperatures. Real-time monitoring of late May heat accumulation across northern China will signal whether June begins in an anomalous regime. Wunderground's historical data feed updates daily, allowing programmatic tracking of comparable years and automated threshold alerts if May 2026 temperatures run persistently above the 30-year mean.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.