Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 1 August, measured in Celsius and resolved from Wunderground’s daily history page for that station. In practical terms, a programme trading this market would treat the exchange window as a single-day max-temperature feed: ingest the daily observations, map the final resolved value to the market’s temperature bands, and avoid overfitting to intraday noise until the day’s peak is fixed.

The prior shape of August in Chengdu makes the current **0% YES** crowd price look like an extreme low-end view rather than a normal seasonal baseline. August is typically Chengdu’s hottest month, with average highs around 29.8–30.4°C, and historical August records have reached 39.2°C in the city’s climate datasets, while typical highs often sit near 30–33°C and can still run into the low 30s on the first of the month.[1][6][11][17] That means a resolution above modest thresholds is climatologically plausible, although the airport station can differ from city-centre averages and short-lived cloud or rain can cap the day’s maximum.

For a trader running bots or conditional orders, the main catalysts are local weather evolution, not calendar events: forecast changes in daytime heating, convective showers, and monsoon moisture will matter most. Chengdu’s August climate is humid and rainy, with roughly 195–318 mm of month-average precipitation depending on the dataset, so a wet morning or afternoon storm can materially suppress the maximum temperature; that makes late updates to the forecast feed the key dependency to watch.[2][7][11][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.