Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the day’s **highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport**, measured in Celsius on 2 August 2026 and later resolved from the Wunderground history page for that station. In practical terms, a trader building rules or a bot around this market would treat it as a single-observation weather print: wait for the daily maximum to be published, then map that value into the settlement range rather than trying to infer the close or an average.

The current **0% YES** crowd price sits well below Chengdu’s normal August heat profile. Long-run sources put August daytime highs around **30–31°C** on average, with typical ranges around **24–34°C** and occasional hotter spikes into the mid-30s; one climate source notes daily highs rarely exceed **94°F (34.4°C)** in August, while another describes extreme highs up to **38–39°C** on especially hot days.[2][3][6][7][11][14] For a programmatic read, that means the market is less about ordinary summer warmth and more about whether the airport station prints an unusually high one-day maximum relative to the month’s baseline.

The main catalysts are straightforward: cloud cover, rainfall, and the timing of afternoon thunderstorms, which can cap the daily maximum even in muggy air.[2][5][11][14] Chengdu’s August rainfall is concentrated in the wet season, and several sources describe the month as hot, humid, and frequently showery, which is the key dependency for any automated forecast model or conditional order logic.[2][4][5][11] Because the settlement source is a station-specific historical record, the operational risk is not citywide weather but whether the airport’s official daily maximum lands in a higher band after a clear, sunny interval versus a rain-cooled day.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.