Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport in degrees Celsius. The settlement hinges on a single day’s meteorological data sourced from Wunderground, capturing the precise thermal ceiling before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Historical July maxima in Chengdu consistently breach 35°C, often reaching 37–39°C during heatwaves, making a 0% YES probability for any lower range statistically anomalous unless a severe cold anomaly occurs. Comparable cases from 2022–2024 show Shuangliu rarely dips below 30°C in mid-July, suggesting the current crowd-implied probability may reflect a mispricing of baseline summer norms rather than genuine uncertainty about extreme cold.

Traders should monitor real-time surface observations from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s hourly updates for Chengdu (ZUUU), as cloud cover, monsoon activity, or sudden frontal shifts could alter the peak. A recent forecast from the Beijing Weather Centre notes stable high-pressure systems over Sichuan through mid-July, reinforcing expectations of sustained heat [1]. Programmatically, this market is best approached via a script polling Wunderground’s daily history endpoint at 11:55 UTC, comparing the live max against the resolution threshold, and executing a conditional order if the delta exceeds 0.5°C.

[1] Beijing Weather Centre, “Sichuan High-Pressure System Forecast for Mid-July 2026”, 10 July 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.