Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market betting on whether the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will hit a specific Celsius threshold. The 74% YES probability suggests the crowd expects temperatures to exceed the settlement line, likely driven by the region’s typical mid-July thermal patterns where highs frequently surpass 35°C.

Historical data from Wunderground shows Chengdu’s July maxima consistently cluster between 34°C and 38°C, with 2023 and 2024 both recording peaks above 36°C at ZUUU. This thermal consistency underpins the current probability, as the city’s humid subtropical climate rarely dips below 30°C during this window, making a high-temperature outcome statistically probable for programmatic traders modelling seasonal baselines.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s hourly archive for ZUUU, as the settlement relies exclusively on the day’s peak reading. A sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation, often triggered by regional monsoon activity, could alter the outcome; recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate stable high-pressure systems over Sichuan, reinforcing the likelihood of clear skies and elevated temperatures through noon UTC [1]. Programmatic approaches should weight these dependencies against the 12:00Z settlement cutoff to capture edge before final resolution.

[1] China Meteorological Administration, "Sichuan Province Weather Forecast – July 2026", accessed 17 July 2026.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.