Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport station highest temperature on 24 July will be the settlement input, so the practical task is to track the day’s *observed* maximum rather than a city forecast. Early-day forecasts already point to a warm, humid afternoon, with BBC Weather showing 24°C at the time of reporting and the Met Office calling for a 35°C maximum with rain chances around 30–40% later in the day.[1][2]

The current crowd-implied 0% YES looks very aggressive against the seasonal baseline. July is normally Chengdu’s hottest and wettest period, with published climactic guides describing typical daytime highs around 29–37°C, average highs near 30°C, high humidity, and frequent rain; that makes a sub-threshold maximum possible only if showers, cloud cover, or weaker-than-expected heating keep the airport reading down.[3][4] For a programmatic approach, traders usually map the market’s range bands against live forecast feeds and then update as the airport observation becomes clearer, rather than relying on city-wide averages alone.

The main catalysts are the afternoon temperature curve, rain timing, and any short-term forecast revisions before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because the market resolves on the highest recorded airport temperature for the day, not the forecast peak.[2] A power-user workflow would watch hourly updates and, where available, compare multiple providers against the specific Chengdu Shuangliu station so bots or conditional orders can react to shifts in the realised maximum rather than headline weather for Chengdu broadly.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.