Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The resolution mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database, requiring traders to verify data retrieval logic against the platform's temperature toggle (Fahrenheit/Celsius conversion) and timestamp handling across the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC.

Chengdu's July temperatures have historically clustered between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Comparable East Asian cities at similar latitudes show July highs typically stabilising within the 32–36°C envelope, though individual days can deviate sharply. Traders should cross-reference historical Wunderground records for Shuangliu station specifically, as airport microclimates often differ from city-centre readings.

The primary catalyst remains the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any high-pressure systems establishing over central China during late July. Traders implementing programmatic monitoring should set conditional orders keyed to 10-day forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, which typically show skill at the 5–7 day horizon. Wunderground's API structure allows automated polling of historical data post-settlement, though real-time forecast confidence degrades sharply beyond 72 hours. Any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or tropical cyclone activity affecting the region would warrant position reassessment, though such events remain probabilistically modest for this timeframe.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.