Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat on 31 July will be measured by the **highest temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, not by the citywide average, so traders need to model the intraday peak rather than the daily mean. Live forecast products for Chengdu are clustering around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius for the end of July, with some showing highs near 33°C and others nearer 35–38°C, which is consistent with a hot, humid summer pattern and leaves little room for a sub-30°C outcome.[3][8][10][12][16]

That probability profile looks conservative against the seasonal baseline: July in Chengdu is typically warm, wet and frequently muggy, with published summaries putting average daytime temperatures around 30–32°C and noting that individual days can reach about 38°C.[5][13][16][19] For a programmatic approach, a bot would usually ingest hourly forecast updates, compare them with the airport station’s historical July highs, and map the likely max into the market’s settlement bands; the current 0% YES implies the crowd is effectively pricing the event as outside the relevant temperature range, which is hard to square with multiple forecast sources showing a midday/afternoon peak well above 30°C.[3][9][12]

The main catalysts are the timing of the afternoon warm-up, cloud cover, and any convective rain or thunderstorm risk that can cap the daytime maximum. Current weather feeds for Chengdu point to warmth, humidity and at least some rain or thunder risk in the day’s forecast window, while official-style city forecasts have also shown Chengdu with a 38°C maximum on 31 July, suggesting the decisive move will come from whether heating is limited before the airport station’s afternoon high is logged.[8][10][14][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.