Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for station ZUCK, capturing the precise Celsius peak before the 12:00 UTC cutoff. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the defined range, though historical data for mid-July in this region often shows extremes exceeding 40°C.

Historical records for Chongqing in July reveal consistent high-temperature clusters, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks above 42°C at Jiangbei Airport. These comparable cases frame the 0% probability as potentially mispriced, given the region’s notorious “furnace” climate. Programmatically, a bot would query Wunderground’s historical API for ZUCK on 17 July across the last five years, calculating the mean and standard deviation to flag deviations from the current market’s implied range before executing conditional orders.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 24-hour forecast issued before 06:00 UTC, which details expected cloud cover and humidity levels that directly suppress peak temperatures. A recent report from the Xinhua News Agency highlights ongoing heatwave warnings across Sichuan and Chongqing provinces, noting that dry air masses are intensifying solar heating [1]. Automated strategies must parse these updates via the CMA’s public API, triggering trades if the forecasted peak aligns with the market’s excluded range, while accounting for the 12:00 UTC settlement dependency.

[1] Xinhua News Agency, "Heatwave warnings issued across Sichuan and Chongqing," 15 July 2026.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.