Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 2 July 2026, a date historically synonymous with intense summer heat. Early July climatology in Chongqing typically features average highs near 32–33°C, with daytime temperatures generally ranging from 32 to 37°C and extreme cases approaching 40°C[2][7]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for temperatures at or below 20°C aligns with this data, as historical records show the city clearing 30°C in the overwhelming majority of years on record for early July[4]. Even the city’s all-time record of 44.5°C occurred in Qijiang District, yet the regional baseline for July remains firmly in the high 30s, making a sub-20°C outcome statistically negligible[1].

A programmatic trader would approach this market by querying Wunderground’s historical daily data for the ZUCK station to establish a baseline, then filtering for anomalies such as sudden monsoon shifts or cloud cover spikes that could depress temperatures. While China recently experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, Chongqing’s daily peaks in July have historically rarely exceeded 39°C, suggesting a natural ceiling despite broader warming trends[5][6]. Traders should monitor real-time weather schedules for incoming rain systems, as July holds the highest number of rain days at an average of 20.2 days, which could act as a catalyst for temporary cooling[9]. Conditional orders should be triggered if precipitation forecasts exceed 150mm, as heavy thunderstorms often accompany Chongqing’s average rainfall of 150–200mm in summer, potentially lowering the peak temperature below typical expectations[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.