Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at Dallas Love Field on 12 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a “YES” outcome on any specific range, yet the frontrunner outcome is 98–99°F at 98% probability, indicating the market expects a hot day well above the 96.9°F July normal [1][6]. Historical July highs at KDAL typically span 96–102°F, with overnight lows between 77–83°F, framing the 0% figure as a mispricing of the baseline thermal regime rather than a signal of cool conditions [2].

A programmatic trader would script a fetcher to poll Wunderground’s daily history endpoint at 12:00Z on 13 July, parsing the “High Temp” field for KDAL and comparing it against the market’s resolution ranges. Catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 6 AM FWD forecast update and any sudden shift in the 500 mb ridge strength over the Southern Plains, which directly modulates daytime heating [6][8]. Recent AccuWeather modelling for July 2026 projects daily highs of 96–102°F, reinforcing the 98–99°F consensus and suggesting the 0% probability is an artefact of liquidity fragmentation rather than a fundamental bearish view [2]. Conditional orders should trigger on Wunderground’s 12-hour lagged update, as the settlement window closes precisely at 12:00Z on 12 July, leaving no room for post-close data revisions [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.