Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’ official high on 22 July is set by the Dallas Love Field Station reading used by Wunderground, so the market will settle on a single daily maximum rather than a forecast range or neighbourhood estimate. In practice, that means the relevant number is the highest observed Fahrenheit temperature recorded at that station before the settlement window closes at noon UTC, and the outcome bucket is determined by where that final daily high lands.

The current 0% YES price is hard to read as a true weather signal because the market is a 11-way partition: traders are not pricing “will it be hot?”, but which exact band the terminal high will fall into. Recent Dallas summer temperature markets have tended to cluster around the low-to-mid 100s Fahrenheit, with one recent Dallas July market showing the 104-105°F band as the frontrunner and 106-107°F also heavily traded, illustrating how quickly probabilities migrate with forecast revisions and how thin any single bucket can look in isolation.[1][2] For a power-user running bots or conditional orders, the useful approach is to map the live forecast distribution to adjacent bands, because a one-degree swing can move value between neighbouring contracts even when the broader heat signal barely changes.

What matters most into expiry is the daily forecast stack for North Texas: National Weather Service updates, the timing of any heat advisory or excessive heat warning, cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and whether a weak front or storm complex trims the afternoon peak. The key dependency is the Love Field station’s actual observation, not the broader Dallas metro, so automated strategies should watch station-level history feeds and intraday forecast updates rather than relying on citywide app summaries. If late-day convection develops, it can cap the maximum temperature quickly; if clear skies hold through peak heating, the upper bands tend to compress upward.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.