Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s hottest reading on 1 August is being set at Baiyun International Airport, so the practical task is not to forecast the city average but to estimate the day’s *maximum* at the reporting station before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. August in Guangzhou is climatologically hot and humid, with typical highs around 33°C and monthly extremes that can run materially above that; one climate reference puts the usual August maximum near 33.2°C and notes rare summer spikes close to 39°C. [1][17]

Against that backdrop, a crowd price of 0% YES is difficult to reconcile with the station’s historical range unless traders believe the published value will be unusually low or the market is mis-specified. For a programmatic workflow, this is the kind of contract where you would ingest the Wunderground daily-history page, normalise the Celsius toggle, and map the reported daily high into the market’s settlement bands rather than trade on broad city weather summaries. Guangzhou’s August profile is consistently warm enough that the relevant question is usually *which band* the airport peak lands in, not whether it reaches summer-level heat at all. [1][15][17]

The main catalysts are the same ones a bot would monitor in real time: updated station observations through the day, any forecast shifts from convection, rain, or cloud cover, and the timing of the airport’s afternoon temperature peak relative to the settlement window. Guangzhou’s August weather is typically humid and rainy, which can cap daytime highs even when the broader seasonal baseline is hot; one monthly forecast source shows early-August daily highs clustered around 89–93°F, underscoring that modest changes in cloud and precipitation can move the final reading by several degrees. [10][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.