Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at the Baiyun International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground’s daily history, with settlement fixed at 12:00 UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, though the specific range is not stated in the prompt.

Historically, mid-July in Guangzhou sees peak summer heat, with daily highs often exceeding 33°C and occasionally reaching 36–37°C. For example, 20 July 2023 recorded a high of 35.2°C at Baiyun, while 20 July 2019 reached 36.8°C [1]. These comparable cases indicate that a 0% YES probability is unusual unless the range is set well above typical extremes, such as 38°C or higher, which would be a rare outlier even in Guangzhou’s hottest summers.

Traders should monitor real-time temperature feeds from Wunderground and local meteorological updates from the China Meteorological Administration, particularly any announcements on heatwave warnings or extreme weather schedules. A sudden spike above 37°C would be the key catalyst to reassess the probability, as such readings are infrequent but not impossible during Guangzhou’s peak summer period. Programmatic approaches would involve polling Wunderground’s API hourly on 20 July and triggering conditional orders if the live temperature breaches the range threshold.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.