Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is a *hot, humid midsummer* site, so the question is whether the day’s peak falls inside the usual July band or edges into an unusually hot reading. July climatology in Guangzhou shows daily highs around 91°F, with rare excursions beyond 96°F, while historical July averages sit near 33°C (91°F), with overnight lows near 26°C (79°F).[2][4][16]

That makes a 0% crowd-implied chance on the YES side look hard to reconcile with the local climate unless the market is pricing a much narrower temperature range than the forecast structure suggests. For historical framing, Guangzhou has repeatedly produced highs in the low- to mid-30s Celsius in late July, including a 34.4°C reading on 26 July and 33.4°C on 31 July in one July set, which is the kind of pattern a bot would model as a warm baseline with only modest tail risk.[12][17] Programmatically, the cleanest approach is to map the market’s temperature bins to Wunderground’s station maximum and update any implied probability from hourly forecast and observation feeds as the local afternoon peak approaches.[6]

Traders should watch the convective rain cycle, cloud cover, and any tropical-system spillover, because those are the main variables that can suppress a high temperature at Guangzhou even when the broader summer background is hot and muggy.[2][19] The settlement source is Wunderground’s Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station history page, so the critical dependency is not a citywide average but the single highest station reading recorded before the settlement window closes; a power-user setup would therefore poll the station history page and cache the latest observed maximum rather than relying on generic city forecasts.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.