Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows early July in Guangzhou typically sees daily highs clustered between 31°C and 34°C, based on China Meteorological Administration station records[4]. This range is consistent with the city’s average July high of 91°F (approximately 33°C), which rarely dips below 31°C even in cooler spells[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range suggests the market may be mispricing the likelihood of extreme heat, given that July 2023 saw the highest average July temperature since 1961, with widespread heatwaves across Guangdong[2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for announcements from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heatwave escalations or monsoon shifts that could suppress temperatures[3]. A recent report from Xinhua News Agency confirms Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, with record-breaking summer days measured by temperature thresholds, indicating a strong upward trend in heat intensity[6]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by setting conditional orders that trigger when Wunderground’s hourly data exceeds 33°C, allowing automated copy-trading bots to capitalise on the divergence between historical norms and current market pricing[7]. Dependencies include the timing of the settlement window, which ends at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, ensuring only data up to that point influences resolution[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.