Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the **highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 1 August 2026**, as measured by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, with the market settling to the temperature band containing the final **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius. In practice, a trader monitoring this programmatically would not use an intraday weather feed alone; the settlement input is the archived Observatory value once published, so the relevant workflow is to poll the climatology page or the Daily Extract file, parse the one-decimal Celsius maximum, and then map it against the market’s payoff buckets.[14]

For context, Hong Kong’s August climate is already hot enough that the historical daily normal maximum for 1 August is **31.6°C**, with humid conditions and a substantial rainfall climatology.[2] In recent years, the city has also seen extreme August heat: the Observatory logged a **35.4°C** maximum on 5 August 2024, the month’s peak, and **34.4°C** on 10 August 2025.[9][13] That means a 0% crowd price on the top-end outcome is only defensible if the listed band is very high; otherwise, comparable August cases show that materially hot readings are common enough to keep higher buckets live when a heat ridge or clear skies develop.[9][13]

The main catalysts to watch are the Observatory’s published weather forecasts, any tropical-disturbance or thunderstorm signals in its public updates, and the timing of the daily climate archive release that ultimately determines settlement.[4][14] Because the market cannot resolve until the finalized Daily Extract is posted, a bot or copy-trading setup should track both the forecast headline and the archival publication lag, then trigger conditional orders only after the verified max temperature appears in the source file.[14] Recent Observatory monthly write-ups show how quickly August can swing from generally fine, very hot spells to wetter, cloudier intervals, so a single morning forecast update can matter more than the overnight crowd view.[9][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.