Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is tracking its highest temperature for 12 July 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory set to publish the absolute daily maximum in degrees Celsius once the Daily Extract is finalized. The market resolves to the temperature range containing this official figure, and current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the peak to fall outside the specified range.

Historically, July in Hong Kong is the hottest month, with record-breaking heat frequent; July 2023 was the city’s hottest month on record, breaking 11 records with an average monthly temperature of 30.3°C [1]. In July 2004 and 2008, the daily maximum reached 34.6°C, ranking among the highest ever recorded for the month [2]. Programmatic traders should note that temperatures in recent years have consistently hovered near or above 34°C on peak days, making low-range outcomes statistically improbable unless an unusual cooling event occurs.

Key catalysts include the Observatory’s Daily Extract publication schedule and any real-time weather advisories from the Hong Kong Observatory or regional meteorological agencies. Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline and the official release of the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” value, which is the sole resolution source [8]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 29°C and 34°C (84°F–94°F), with an average high of 32°C (89°F) [4]. Any deviation from this range—such as a sudden monsoon or heatwave—would be the primary driver of price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.