Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 13 July 2026, resolving to the Celsius range containing that daily maximum. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for a specific outcome, the current pricing suggests traders expect the data to fall outside the offered ranges or that the event is too uncertain to price meaningfully ahead of the official Daily Extract publication.

Historical July data frames the probability landscape, with July 2024 proving exceptionally hot and recording a daily mean of 30.8°C and a minimum of 29.2°C on 6 July, both highest on record for those metrics [1]. Long-term averages show July as Hong Kong’s hottest month, typically reaching an average high of 31.7°C (89°F) [6], while recent forecasts for July 2026 project daily highs between 29°C and 34°C (84°F–94°F) [2]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the specific temperature ranges offered and these established historical bands, rather than an expectation of unusually cool conditions.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Climatological Information Services page for the finalized “Daily Extract” containing the Absolute Daily Max value [7]. Settlement depends entirely on this official publication, which is only available after the data is finalized for the specified date [9]. No external news catalysts will override the Observatory’s figures; the only dependency is the release timeline of the monthly weather summary for July 2026, which power-users should script to poll automatically once the settlement window closes at 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.