Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak Celsius reading recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 15 July 2026, which will settle this market once the official Daily Extract is finalized. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the date falling in mid-summer when extremes are common but the specific bracket may be too narrow or misaligned with historical norms.

Historical data for mid-July in Hong Kong typically shows absolute daily maximums ranging between 31°C and 35°C, with recent years frequently hitting 34°C or higher during heatwaves [1]. For instance, past July 15 readings have often clustered near 33°C–34°C, meaning a 0% probability implies the offered range is either significantly below this band or excludes the most probable outcome entirely. Programmatic traders should back-test this against the full year CSV dataset from the HKO API to identify where the current range fails relative to the 90th percentile of historical highs [1].

Key catalysts include the official publication schedule of the Daily Extract, which usually finalizes data within 24–48 hours after the observation date, and any real-time heatwave advisories issued by the Observatory. Traders monitoring this programmatically should watch for automated alerts on the HKO open data endpoint, as delays in data release can create arbitrage windows before settlement [1]. Recent weather patterns show scattered clouds and temperatures around 27°C (81°F) at 6 AM UTC, but midday peaks often surge well above this baseline [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.