Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the official daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point, once finalized in the "Daily Extract", determines the settlement outcome for the prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests the market believes a specific temperature threshold is virtually impossible, yet historical data indicates July highs in Hong Kong typically average near 31–32°C, with forecasts for July 2026 showing daily highs ranging from 86°F to 96°F (approximately 30–36°C)[1][2].

Historically, July in Hong Kong consistently delivers high temperatures, with the monthly mean often reaching 29°C or higher, and recent years showing trends of above-normal warmth due to global warming and ENSO influences[4][8]. The 0% probability for a specific outcome likely reflects a misalignment between the market’s threshold and the realistic range of 30–32°C, which aligns with both the 2026 forecast and long-term averages[1][2]. A programmatically approaching trader would script a bot to monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" release, cross-referencing real-time temperature feeds with the forecasted range to identify arbitrage opportunities before data finalisation[4].

Key catalysts for traders include the broad trough of low pressure expected to affect the South China Sea in early July, which may increase moisture transport and potentially elevate temperatures beyond the average[4]. Additionally, the higher chance of tropical cyclone activity in the region during the first half of July could introduce volatility in temperature readings, making conditional orders essential for risk management[4]. Traders should also watch for official announcements from the Hong Kong Observatory regarding the finalisation of the "Daily Extract", as settlement cannot occur until this data is published[1]. Recent climate models confirm that July 2026 temperatures are expected to be normal to above-normal, reinforcing the likelihood of highs near 31–32°C[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.