Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, Hong Kong will experience its peak summer heat, with the Hong Kong Observatory recording the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This real-world event determines the outcome of a prediction market resolving to the temperature range containing that highest reading, measured to one decimal place. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside a specific, likely high, threshold, though the exact range remains unspoken in the query.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs near 31.8°C and frequent peaks exceeding 34°C. In July 2024, the Observatory recorded a maximum of 34.8°C on 7 July, marking an exceptionally hot period [9]. Similarly, July 2018 saw a mean maximum of 31.8°C [4]. These comparable cases indicate that temperatures on 9 July 2026 are likely to be in the 32–35°C range, making a 0% probability for a high threshold plausible only if that threshold is set unusually high, such as above 36°C.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather summaries and the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data, which is the official resolution source [4]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 36°C and 38°C (85°–95°F), with overnight lows around 26–28°C [1]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, rainfall, or tropical cyclone activity could alter the maximum temperature. Watch for updates from the Observatory’s Monthly Weather Summary page, which will publish the finalized data for July 2026 once available [5]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, so data must be published before this time to resolve the market. Programmatically, bots should query the Observatory’s climatological API or scrape the Daily Extract page for the “Absolute Daily Max” value, then compare it against the market’s threshold to trigger conditional orders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.