Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single data point, sourced from the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" once finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed pending official publication of the daily climate record.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster predictably around 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 26°C during early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine uncertainty event. Comparable markets on fixed meteorological readings typically show compressed odds once the underlying measurement window approaches; the flat probability here indicates either incomplete market participation or pending clarification on the specific temperature bands offered.

A trader automating exposure to this market should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule and cross-reference any unusual weather patterns in late May 2026—tropical cyclone activity, monsoon onset timing, or heat dome positioning in the region could shift the distribution meaningfully. Programmatic resolution requires parsing the Observatory's climate data portal directly rather than relying on secondary sources, since the settlement hinges on the precise decimal value recorded in their official extract. Conditional orders tied to regional weather forecasts issued in late May would allow systematic entry once uncertainty genuinely exists.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.