Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's maximum daily temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the official temperature reading typically becomes available within hours of the observation period ending. This market resolves to a specific temperature range once the Observatory publishes the absolute daily maximum in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable variability. Between 2015 and 2024, daily maxima on 11 June ranged from 28.5°C to 33.4°C, with a median around 31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule—data typically appears in their climate records within 24 hours of the observation period. Automated systems monitoring the Hong Kong Observatory's website or API endpoints can detect resolution data as soon as it's published, enabling conditional order execution across related weather markets.

June 2026 falls within Hong Kong's early monsoon season, when southwesterly winds intensify and humidity rises sharply. Temperature forecasts become increasingly uncertain beyond two weeks, making early-season weather patterns the primary catalyst. Traders should monitor the Observatory's monthly climate summaries and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures significantly. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Observatory data availability—no alternative sources are permitted—so tracking their publication lag times is essential for execution timing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.