Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, measured to one decimal place. This date falls within Hong Kong's early summer period, when the territory typically experiences warm, humid conditions ahead of the monsoon transition.

Historical temperature data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows June maxima cluster between 29–33°C, with occasional excursions above 34°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders integrating historical Observatory records via their API should note that June temperatures have ranged from 28.5°C (cooler years) to 35.8°C (heat events), providing a useful calibration range for conditional orders. The Observatory publishes daily extracts with a lag of 1–2 days post-observation, so automated resolution monitoring should account for this delay beyond the settlement window close.

Meteorological catalysts include the onset timing of the Southwest Monsoon and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal outlooks and weekly forecasts that traders can programmatically monitor. Sea surface temperature anomalies and upper-air patterns in May will signal whether June leans toward typical warmth or anomalous heat. Traders building bots to track this market should subscribe to Observatory data feeds and cross-reference regional weather model consensus from late May onwards.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.