Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though the official temperature reading typically becomes available within hours of the local midnight that closes the meteorological day. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule; delays in data release will postpone settlement.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster around 28–32°C for daily maxima, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early-season heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific narrow range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Reviewing the Observatory's five-year June records reveals that temperatures exceeding 34°C occur roughly once per decade in mid-June, whilst readings below 27°C are exceptionally rare. This distribution should anchor baseline expectations for range-based settlement.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the Observatory's publication lag. Conditional orders triggered on weather forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory or the China Meteorological Administration in early June will provide the earliest signal; tropical cyclone activity or upper-level troughs typically drive the largest deviations from seasonal norms. The Observatory publishes preliminary data within hours but may revise readings if instrument calibration issues surface. Automated systems should query the Daily Extract endpoint after 06:00 UTC on 14 June to capture finalised readings, as the Observatory occasionally updates historical entries during quality-control reviews.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.