Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's absolute maximum temperature in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading will determine which temperature band resolves as YES. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though the actual Observatory data publication may lag by several days, meaning resolution cannot occur until the official Daily Extract is published on their climate information system.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly consistent within a narrow band. Historical data shows absolute daily maxima in mid-June typically range between 31–34°C, with the long-term average around 32.5°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting market options to be populated or treating this as a calibration exercise. For programmatic traders, this market functions as a baseline humidity and seasonal stability indicator—June sits between the pre-monsoon heat spike (May) and the onset of the southwest monsoon (late June), creating relatively predictable conditions. Comparable years show minimal variance; the standard deviation across June 15th readings over two decades remains under 1.5°C.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviation. The China Meteorological Administration's monthly outlooks, published around 20 May, provide upstream signal for regional pressure patterns. Automated systems should flag any alerts from the Observatory's typhoon warning page; whilst direct hits are rare in mid-June, peripheral circulation can suppress temperatures by 2–3°C. Settlement automation should be configured to poll the Daily Extract page after 15 June, as publication timing varies.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.