Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 June 2026, Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. This market resolves to whichever temperature range bracket contains that single highest reading for the day, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though actual resolution depends on the Observatory publishing finalised data, which typically occurs within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are consistently warm, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C during early June. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no traders have engaged with this market yet, or the current range options presented do not align with expected conditions. For programmatic evaluation, traders should cross-reference the Observatory's historical climate data and seasonal patterns: early June sits between late spring and the onset of the southwest monsoon, creating relatively stable warm conditions before the more extreme heat of July and August.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Observatory's publication schedule and any weather alerts issued in late May 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, whilst uncommon in early June, would be the primary catalyst for temperature deviations from seasonal norms. Automated systems can monitor the Observatory's Daily Extract feed directly; the specific data point required is clearly defined and machine-readable, making this suitable for conditional order logic once range brackets are populated and probability distributions become meaningful.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.