Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine the market resolution, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range.

Historical June data frames this probability: the highest monthly mean maximum for June in Hong Kong is 32.4°C (recorded in 2016), with 2015 and 1938 following closely at 32.3°C and 31.7°C respectively[2]. Recent short-range models for Hong Kong converge on June-typical maxima near 32–33°C, while a historic heatwave earlier this year saw temperatures soar to 35.6°C, the hottest day since the year began[9]. A power-user would programmatically query the Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for the “Absolute Daily Max” once finalized, automating the fetch of the official figure to trigger conditional orders.

Traders must monitor the Observatory’s publication schedule for the 24 June “Daily Extract”, as the market cannot resolve until this data is finalized[3]. The key catalyst is the official release of the temperature reading, which depends on the Observatory’s internal verification process. Recent news confirms Hong Kong faced extreme heat earlier in June, with temperatures reaching 35°C and the Observatory recording a maximum of 34.3°C, the highest “Minor” reading on record[6]. This volatility underscores the need to track the exact timing of the data release, as delays could impact settlement before the 2026-06-24T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.