Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak air temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Short-range models and the Observatory itself indicate above-normal temperatures for late June 2026, with daily highs expected near 32–34°C on the 25th[1]. Historical data frames this probability: the highest monthly mean maximum temperature for June in Hong Kong was 32.4°C in 2016, followed closely by 32.3°C in 2015[3]. Recent extremes reinforce this range, with Hong Kong hitting 34.6°C on 5 June 2026 and recording a maximum of 34.3°C during a historic heatwave on a recent Friday[5][10]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% crowd-implied probability for the "Yes" outcome is likely mispriced, as the market frontrunner currently assigns 53% chance to 32°C and 32% to 33°C[1].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor the "Daily Extract" publication schedule from the Hong Kong Observatory, as the market cannot resolve until the "Absolute Daily Max" data is finalized[4]. The primary catalyst is the release of the official climate data, which typically occurs within days after the observation date. Traders must also watch for short-range model convergence, as recent conditional orders on similar June dates show tight odds between 32°C and 33°C due to model agreement on June-typical maxima[7]. While no specific announcement is pending, the dependency on the Observatory’s finalized extract remains the critical settlement trigger. The current forecast shows daily highs ranging from 88°F to 93°F (approximately 31.1°C to 33.9°C), aligning with the 32–34°C expectation[2]. Programmatic approaches should automate checks for the "Daily Extract" update to capture the exact resolution value before the settlement window ends on 2026-06-25T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.