Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Historical long-term averages for Hong Kong in June show daytime maximums typically reaching 30°C, accompanied by high heat and humidity, with 19 days of rainfall expected in the month[1]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s official seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures for the region, citing ENSO status and climate model guidance as key factors[3]. This official outlook directly contradicts the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES, suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of a significant heat spike given the forecasted conditions.

A programmatically focused trader should monitor the Observatory’s daily extract releases, which finalise the “Absolute Daily Max” data after the settlement window ends. Key catalysts include any official heatwave announcements or extreme heat warnings, which the Observatory has recently issued for temperatures hitting 33°C in early June[6]. Traders building bots or conditional orders must also track the timing of the Daily Extract publication, as the market cannot resolve until this data is officially published. Recent news confirms Hong Kong is bracing for a heatwave with temperatures expected to reach 33°C, reinforcing the above-normal temperature forecast and providing a tangible benchmark for algorithmic strategies[6]. The dependency on the finalised Daily Extract means latency in data publication could impact automated trading execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.