Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

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Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data once finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on official data publication, which typically occurs within days of the measurement period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically stable within a narrow band. The Observatory's climate records show June daily maxima typically range between 28–32°C, with extreme outliers rare. Early June sits in the pre-monsoon transition period; the southwest monsoon strengthens through the month, moderating afternoon peaks through cloud cover and convection. Historical volatility in daily maxima during this window is modest—roughly 2–3°C variation year-on-year. The current 0% crowd probability suggests markets are pricing confidence in a specific temperature bracket, likely the 30–31°C or 31–32°C range based on climatological norms.

Traders automating conditional orders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's forecast updates, published daily at 18:00 HKT. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June 2026 would be the primary catalyst for deviation from seasonal norms; any system tracking towards the region would shift atmospheric patterns and suppress afternoon temperatures. Programmatic resolution requires parsing the Observatory's published Daily Extract table directly rather than relying on summary forecasts, since settlement hinges on the precise recorded maximum to one decimal place. Data availability delays are uncommon but possible during severe weather events.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.