Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, measured to one decimal place. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect a temperature below the lowest resolution bracket, though the specific thresholds are not stated in the market description.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster around 28–32°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C during early summer. The Observatory's 30-year climate normals show June as a transitional month between spring and the onset of the southwest monsoon, typically bringing increased humidity and occasional rainfall that moderates peak temperatures. Comparable dates from recent years—such as early June 2023 and 2024—recorded daily maxima between 29–31°C, providing a baseline for evaluating whether the crowd's low probability reflects genuine rarity or market inefficiency around seasonal norms.

Traders automating conditional orders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule, which typically releases Daily Extract data within 2–3 days of the observation date. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June 2026, but resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes verified data. Programmatic approaches should account for this lag: bots tracking real-time weather forecasts from the Observatory's public API can inform position sizing ahead of publication, whilst conditional orders tied to specific temperature thresholds require precise bracket definitions to execute reliably. Regional weather patterns—particularly the onset of monsoon systems or heat waves—will be the primary driver of deviation from historical norms.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.