Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single recorded value, sourced from the Observatory's official Daily Extract dataset once finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its data, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation period ending.

Hong Kong's late May temperatures are historically consistent. Over the past two decades, 31 May maxima have ranged between 29.0°C and 33.5°C, clustering most frequently in the 30–32°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity across all bands. Reviewing historical volatility: the Observatory's records show single-day swings of up to 3–4°C depending on monsoon activity and cloud cover, but May typically sits in a predictable window before the full intensity of summer heat arrives.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and the South China Sea monsoon progression through May 2026. Automated feeds from the Observatory's climate data portal can be integrated via their published API endpoints to flag when the Daily Extract updates post-settlement. Conditional orders tied to broader Asian weather indices—particularly the Oceanic Niño Index and regional pressure systems—can help position ahead of publication. The key dependency is data availability; unlike markets with real-time feeds, this resolves only once official records are published and verified.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.