Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport on 23 July, so the practical question is whether the airport hits a familiar summer peak, not whether the city sees a heatwave. July in Houston is already a hot, humid month, with average temperatures around 77°F to 96°F and roughly 9 to 10 rainy days on average, which matters because cloud cover and rain can cap the day’s high even in midsummer.[2]

The current 0% YES pricing only makes sense if the market’s yes threshold is set above the day’s likely maximum, because Houston’s recent comparable weather has reached 95°F on a past July day in the local records shown, while still leaving room for hotter readings on other days.[1][2] For programme-style trading, the useful input is not the city forecast alone but the station-level maximum at KHOU, which can differ from downtown conditions, so an automated strategy would monitor the airport forecast, morning dewpoint, convective potential, and any afternoon thunderstorm risk that could suppress the high.[2]

For catalyst tracking, watch the National Weather Service forecast updates, hourly temperature curves, and radar-driven rain chances through the afternoon, because the settlement source is a daily high rather than a single instantaneous reading. If the airport stays mostly sunny with light winds, the temperature can still climb late in the day; if showers fire near peak heating, the high may be locked in earlier and settle below hotter ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.