Highest temperature in London on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at London City Airport on 16 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily history for station EGLC. Today’s reading sits at 13°C, a figure that aligns with the crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome suggesting extreme heat, as the day has already progressed past the typical afternoon peak without a surge.

Historical July highs at EGLC rarely breach 30°C, with the most notable spikes occurring during the 2022 heat dome when temperatures briefly exceeded 40°C across the UK, though EGLC itself recorded lower peaks due to its coastal exposure. The current 0% YES probability reflects this thermal inertia; power-users running script-based arbitrage bots would flag the lack of volatility in the 24-hour window as a signal to ignore conditional orders targeting high-temperature brackets, given the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC tomorrow and the day is already half-finished.

Traders monitoring this event should watch the Met Office’s 24-hour forecast updates for southerly wind shifts, which are the primary catalyst for heat accumulation in London, though today’s 8 mph southerly flow is insufficient to drive temperatures upward. Recent BBC Weather data confirms falling pressure and moderate visibility, conditions that typically suppress rapid temperature climbs, reinforcing the programmatic view that no automated entry is warranted for high-temperature outcomes in this specific settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.