Highest temperature in London on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will settle into one of several defined ranges. The market resolves using historical weather data from Wunderground, pulling the single daily maximum from the EGLC station rather than averaging or sampling across multiple London locations. This specificity matters for programmatic traders: the resolution source is fixed, queryable, and deterministic once the day passes.

June temperatures in London historically cluster between 18–23°C, with extremes rare but documented. The Met Office's 30-year climate normals show a June mean of 20.3°C for central London; the airport station, positioned near the Thames estuary, typically runs 1–2°C cooler than inland sites due to maritime influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about range definitions or treating this as a calibration test rather than a genuine forecast. Comparable June days at EGLC show maxima rarely exceeding 25°C unless a continental high-pressure system anchors over the UK—an event with roughly 15–20% frequency in any given June week.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Met Office's extended outlook from early June and watch for blocking anticyclones developing over Scandinavia or the Atlantic. Upper-air patterns and jet-stream positioning become predictable 7–10 days ahead. Automated systems can ingest GFS or ECMWF model data to estimate probability density across temperature bins; the settlement window closes at noon UTC, giving traders a hard cutoff for live data ingestion from Wunderground's historical archive.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.