Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The resolution mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, making this a straightforward factual settlement tied to a single, verifiable data point. Traders evaluating this market should note that London City Airport sits in East London near the Thames, which influences local microclimatic conditions differently from central London or Heathrow readings.

Historical June temperatures in London show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, June highs at London City Airport ranged from 19°C in cooler years to 28°C during warmer spells, with a median around 22–24°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders building conditional orders or bot-based strategies should cross-reference this against seasonal normals and any available long-range forecasts as June 2026 approaches, though such forecasts remain unreliable beyond two weeks.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 June, which matters for programmatic approaches: Wunderground updates historical data with a lag, so final resolution may not occur immediately. Traders automating position closure should account for this delay and verify the exact timestamp Wunderground assigns to the daily high. Recent Met Office seasonal outlooks and any anomalous atmospheric patterns (El Niño persistence, Arctic Oscillation shifts) observable in early 2026 will provide the most actionable signals for range selection.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.